One of the wonderful things about the internet is its openess. The fact that you and I can agree on a way to exchange information, and code a protocol to do so, without needing anyone’s permission has spawned incredible innovation at the edge. This edge-driven innovation has shown itself to be infinitely more creative than the incumbent service providers who took 20 years of discussion to roll out caller ID. This edge driven innovation is starting to show even more far-reaching promise with all of the Web 2.0 collaborative applications being developed. We’re just scratching the surface of how the internet will impact and change our lives.
But, … all of this needs an open internet. When and if governments and large incumbents mess with this, whether to protect profits or in the name of “security”, then we the people lose the most valuable communication tool ever created. There seems to be a real risk that forces are driving the future in this direction.
With this in mind, I’ve sketched out a few possible future scenarios, of what the world of IP might look like 5 or 10 years down the road. Hope you enjoy, please comment, and if you don’t have time to read all this, skip to the bottom — consumer wireless mesh. It’s my favorite future!
Future #1: The wireline “consumer channel” world
Or, the locked-in, bundled, triple-play / quadruple-play / six-pack you-get-what-I-give-you internet. In this world, the duopoly that exists in the States (and to some degree elsewhere in the world but not everywhere!), a.k.a. the ILECs and Cablecos continue to be the primary providers of internet, voice and video services, with increasingly greater degree of control over what is offered. We talk about BrandX in the States and the cosy confluence of interest that can exist between governments and monopolistic telecommunications providers (”you go ahead and do what you want with the pipe to make money, just make sure I can tap in and listen to anything I want”). Already for Comcast users in the States, ports 135 - 139 are blocked. Period. Sorry, can’t use your high speed broadband service to talk to an exchange server. In the future scenario, as a Comcast user you would be allowed to watch Comcast IP video, but no-one else’s. This ultimately gets extended to things like email servers (you like that comcast.net address do you?), music downloads, VoIP applications, Torrent, etc, via some of the deep packet inspection technology. So what you wind up with is a sort of quasi-internet. They don’t stop you from using google, but they might block some sites / content they don’t like. They certainly will block applications they don’t like, or that are competitive to them. And, most consumers will put up with this because they don’t have true choice and it’s better than nothing. Of course, in this scenario the ILECs / telcos / PTTs struggle to keep up with the cable cos, by rolling out video, etc. What do you mean there’s no competition, you are free to pick Comcast’s bundle or Verizon’s. Funny how they both cost about the same … This scenario induces nausea for those that care about the openness of today’s internet.
Future 2: “Wireless World” future
In the wireless future, the fixed copper/coax/fiber infrastructure of the last mile is of decreasing utility and use. (Still very useful in the backbone, though). People connect to the IP and voice networks via wireless platforms. Of course this includes cellphones, PDAs, blackberrys, etc., but extends to traditional laptops, desktops, PepperPads, etc.. The Dell home PC of the future comes with built in Wimax / EvDO / UTMS on the motherboard (or whatever the radio stuff will be in 10 years), much as there is a RJ45 jack today. The computer is bundled with 1 year wireless internet from your carrier of choice. Corporate LANs, even on the large campus, are all wireless. This scenario has two sub-scenarios, a) the dystopian wireless world as the global MNOs see it, and b) the utopian wireless world seen by the new breed of WISPs (Wireless ISPs).
Future 2a: It’s the dystopian MNO world-view that worries me, where the wireless data network is created only to be captive to the short-minded mindset that nickle-and-dime’s you for each SMS, IM, ringtone, pay-per-view video newscast, etc.. In this world the browser is locked to the MNOs walled-garden portal, that only provides you the content and capability that they can profit from. Of course you will get your Amazon, ebay, and other major brand access (the MNOs will negotiate a kickback from these guys). But Web 2.0 dies, you’re there to consume, not create.
Future 2b: The WISPS are one hope for the future openness of the internet. They don’t have the inclination, clout, or scale to pretend to offer anything other than IP access. They survive by being the stupid pipe, allowing their customer to access to the great richness of the small-pieces-loosely-joined internet. They don’t vette every new site for approval, so the tremendous web 2.0 notion of web users interacting, not merely consuming, can flourish rapidly. They understand that what they are providing is as much the “first mile” as it is the “last mile”. In this future, perhaps because (or if …) the WISPS succeed and grow, it causes the MNOs to rethink their current path, and they open up their data networks as well.
Future 3: The consumer-product level wireless mesh
This is perhaps really a third future to the Wireless World, but it’s my dream scenario [special thanks to Bob Franston who introduced me to this concept and who has spent much time promoting it]. In this future, a smart hardware company sells a $100 consumer product gateway / onramp to the worldwide wireless mesh. This device has a AC power plug — that’s it. You plug it into your wall, it powers on, finds nearby radios, and joins an ad-hoc net providing and receiving IP dial-tone and bandwidth and distributing it locally via 802.11 or whatever wireless LAN tech is in use 10 years out. This net is essentially free and unowned, because a little piece of it is owned by everyone who buys and plugs in a radio. It’s the most granular of the consumer-owned network approaches. The routing technology is interesting here, as is the use of encrypted services — it’s a given that your traffic is passing through potentially any number of compromised devices. Maybe initially we start with small islands of these, linked by traditional backbones. Over time, with increasing density, the aggregate bandwidth rises exponentially (or so I’m told). This scenario is truly open — no one controls what packets you send — no one can.
Well that’s it. Three of many possible futures. If you’ve read this far, I congratulate you. You clearly care about the future of the internet.
Help keep it open, help make it free. It’s our net, it’s our future.